Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Atlanta Braves visit the Los Angeles Dodgers in MLB on Sunday, October 4, with first pitch at 8:00 p.m. ET. The regular season is complete, and this is a postseason game. Goalorithm’s estimates are not certainties; the model’s likelier result is a Los Angeles Dodgers win.
The game is at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, with a first-pitch forecast of 96°F and clear, wind 12 mph from the southwest. The model projects 8.8 runs in all.
What the model expects
The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers 59.5% to win and the Atlanta Braves 40.5%. Its expected scoring is 4.7 for the Los Angeles Dodgers and 4.1 for the Atlanta Braves.
For a win by two runs or more, the model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers 39.5% and the Atlanta Braves 26%.
Form and standings
The Los Angeles Dodgers finished the regular season 100-62, with a +201 run differential: 801 runs scored and 600 allowed. The Atlanta Braves finished 94-68, with a +116 run differential: 742 runs scored and 626 allowed. The Los Angeles Dodgers have the better record.
The Los Angeles Dodgers went 3-2 in their last 5 games, with 14 runs scored and 13 allowed, and are on 3 straight wins. Their latest was a 5-1 road win over the San Francisco Giants on September 27. The Atlanta Braves went 3-2 in their last 5 games, with 25 runs scored and 17 allowed. Their latest was a 6-2 home win over the Philadelphia Phillies on October 1.