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Match analysis · UEFA Champions League

Research workspace

AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid: Match Analysis & Model Review

AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League, Wednesday, October 14: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

It was a 4-3 win for Real Madrid over AS Roma in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, October 14, turning a match that had swung toward AS Roma into a late victory. AS Roma led by a two-goal lead at 3-1, but Real Madrid scored late goals to take the points.

The teams were level at 1-1 before AS Roma moved ahead after the break. The closing sequence settled a contest in which both sides led at some point; the lead changed hands once; the score was levelled twice. Both teams found a way back into the scoring, and the final goal decided it.

How it unfolded

Marten de Roon put AS Roma ahead in the 20th minute, making it 1-0. Kylian Mbappé equalised for Real Madrid in the 25th minute to make it 1-1, the score at half-time.

Donyell Malen restored AS Roma's lead in the 51st minute, then scored again in the 57th minute to make it 3-1. AS Roma had built its largest lead of the match, but Carlos Espí pulled one back for Real Madrid in the 83rd minute.

Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa levelled for Real Madrid in the 85th minute; Antonio Rüdiger completed the turnaround in the 90th minute, making it 3-4. The goals came in a sharp late swing, with the equaliser followed by the winner.

The numbers

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Week
Predictions
My Tracker

The match produced seven goals: AS Roma scored three goals and Real Madrid scored four goals. Donyell Malen supplied two goals for AS Roma, with a brace.

The shot count was 14 for AS Roma and 16 for Real Madrid; shots on target were 7 and 8. Possession was 54% for AS Roma and 46% for Real Madrid. Expected goals came in at 1.51 for AS Roma and 1.89 for Real Madrid.

AS Roma had 5 corners and Real Madrid had 9. Each goalkeeper made 4 saves for AS Roma and 4 for Real Madrid. The match's shot, possession and expected-goals figures offer a statistical picture of a game that finished with a late swing.

Standout performers

D. Malen was AS Roma's best-rated player, with a rating of 8.8 and 2 goals. His first goal put AS Roma ahead at 2-1; his second extended the lead to 3-1, but could not prevent the late reversal.

For Real Madrid, Endrick earned the best rating, 8.2, with 1 goal. The goal arrived during Real Madrid's late recovery, as they erased the deficit and went on to win.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave AS Roma a 24.2% chance of winning, a draw 24.5%, and Real Madrid a 51.3% chance. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Real Madrid to win, and it gave that outcome 51.3%.

The model's most likely outcome happened. The late swing delivered the outcome the model had identified as most likely, despite AS Roma taking a two-goal lead after the interval.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Champions League

AS Roma vs Real Madrid

Wed, Oct 14 · 3:00 PM ET · Stadio Olimpico

Full time

3–4

Half-time 1–1

  • 20'Marten de Roon1–0
  • 25'Kylian Mbappé1–1
  • 51'Donyell Malen2–1
  • 57'Donyell Malen3–1
  • 83'Carlos Espí3–2
  • 85'Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa3–3
  • 90'Antonio Rüdiger3–4

The model before the game

AS Roma
24.2%
Draw
24.5%
Real Madrid
51.3%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

AS RomaStatisticReal Madrid
4saves4
14shots16
5corners9
54%possession46%
1.51expected goals1.89
7shots on target8
Open the Match Center

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