Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
AS Roma host Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, October 14 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Real Madrid win, with its expected-goals figures pointing to a stronger attacking return for Real Madrid.
What the model expects
The model's outcome estimates are 51.1% for a Real Madrid win, 24.5% for a draw and 24.4% for an AS Roma win. These are estimates; the model's clearest signal is a Real Madrid victory, though the draw probability is close to AS Roma's chance of winning.
The goal model expects over 2.5 goals at 66.5%, while under 2.5 goals at 33.5% is its estimate for a lower-scoring game. It gives both teams a 65.2% chance of scoring, against 34.8% for at least one side to be shut out. Expected goals are 1.4 for AS Roma and 2.1 for Real Madrid.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. No single scoreline dominates the model's forecast; its leading scenarios all leave room for Real Madrid to take the result.
Form and standings
Real Madrid arrive after WLLWW, a sequence that includes 3 wins and 2 defeats and 11 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their most recent result was a 2-1 home win against Inter on September 8.
AS Roma are 22nd in UEFA Champions League with 1 point from 1 game, while Real Madrid are 16th in UEFA Champions League with 3 points from 1 game. Real Madrid sit above AS Roma.