Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Ararat-Armenia host AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, with kick-off at 12:45 p.m. ET at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan. The model’s likeliest result is an Ararat-Armenia win, but its outcome probabilities leave a draw and an AZ Alkmaar win in view. The table puts the visitors above their hosts, while the model’s leading exact-score projection is level.
The fixture brings together a side still seeking its first points in the competition and an opponent already on the board. That contrast makes the standings a clear part of the story, though the model does not simply mirror the table: its likeliest outcome is a home win.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are an Ararat-Armenia win (39.4%), then a draw (33.1%), then an AZ Alkmaar win (27.5%). That ordering gives Ararat-Armenia the narrow edge in the model’s assessment, with the draw also a substantial possibility and an AZ Alkmaar victory still represented.
For the goal total, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 67.7% and over 2.5 goals at 32.3%. It assigns 39.4% to both teams scoring, and 60.6% to at least one side failing to score. Those figures point towards a match in which a blank for one team is more likely than both sides finding the net, while the model does not expect a high-scoring game.
Expected goals are level: Ararat-Armenia are assigned 1 and AZ Alkmaar 1. The leading exact-score projections are 0-0 at 15.8%, 1-1 at 13.4% and 0-1 at 12.8%. The two leading scores are draws; the next listed possibility has AZ Alkmaar ahead by a goal.