Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
1899 Hoffenheim host Beşiktaş in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15 at 3:00 p.m. ET, with the teams arriving from different positions in the table. Beşiktaş sit above 1899 Hoffenheim, while the model’s outcomes run a 1899 Hoffenheim win (43.2%), then a Beşiktaş win (32.8%), then a draw (23.9%).
The model’s figures are estimates. Its forecast puts a Hoffenheim win first, but also gives Beşiktaş a substantial share of the match outcome. The fixture is at Prezero Arena, Sinsheim.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a 1899 Hoffenheim win. That is the leading outcome in its forecast, not a prediction that the match will be one-sided. A draw and an away win also feature in the model’s view of the game.
The goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 66.7%, against under 2.5 goals at 33.3%. The model gives both teams a probability of scoring of 67.1%; its estimate that at least one side fails to score is 32.9%. These figures point to the possibility of goals at both ends, while leaving room for one team to be kept off the scoresheet.
Expected goals are 1899 Hoffenheim 1.9 and Beşiktaş 1.6. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 (9.6%), followed by 2-1 (8.2%) and 1-2 (7.1%). The range of scorelines in the forecast leaves more than one route through the game: the model includes a draw as well as wins for either side. Its expected-goals figures indicate contributions from both teams, while the score estimates underline that no single exact result dominates.