Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Zimbabwe 1–2 Congo DR. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Zimbabwe host Congo DR in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Monday, September 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET, at National Sports Stadium, Harare. Goalorithm’s model points to a Congo DR win, while its goals forecast leans towards a lower-scoring match.
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is a Congo DR win (50.9%), then a draw (29.3%), then a Zimbabwe win (19.7%), with a draw between the two sides’ win chances. Its central exact-score possibilities all have Zimbabwe failing to score, giving the forecast a consistent shape without making any single scoreline certain.
What the model expects
The model’s expected-goals figures are Zimbabwe 0.6 and Congo DR 1.4. Its likeliest result is a Congo DR win; that is the outcome at the centre of the match forecast, not a certainty about how the game will unfold.
For total goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 31.4% and under 2.5 goals at 68.6%, with its lean at under 2.5 goals. The chance of both teams scoring is 32.9%; the chance of at least one side failing to score is 67.1%. That second measure includes matches in which one side scores and the other does not, as well as goalless draws.
The leading exact-score possibilities are 0-1 at 19.3%, 0-0 at 16.9% and 0-2 at 12.7%. Each has Zimbabwe scoreless, and the list spans a draw as well as outcomes for Congo DR. These are the model’s most prominent individual scorelines, while the wider outcome forecast still allows for several ways the match could finish.