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Game analysis · college football

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New Mexico State Aggies 34-13 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 34-13 win for the New Mexico State Aggies over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in college football, Thursday, October 1: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

The New Mexico State Aggies beat the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34-13 in college football on Thursday, October 1. The New Mexico State Aggies piled up 206 rushing yards, and De'Marcus Peters returned an interception for a touchdown as the Aggies earned a win.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers gained 314 net passing yards, but finished with 35 rushing yards. Both teams had 1 turnover, with De'Marcus Peters' return giving the New Mexico State Aggies a defensive touchdown.

The numbers

The New Mexico State Aggies totaled 352 yards, including 146 net passing yards and 206 rushing yards. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers totaled 349 yards, with 314 net passing yards and 35 rushing yards.

The New Mexico State Aggies recorded 17 first downs and held possession for 29:35; the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers had 18 first downs and possession for 30:25. On third down, the Aggies converted 16.7%, while the Hilltoppers converted 38.9%. Each team committed 1 turnover.

Top performers

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Predictions
Games
Standings

New Mexico State Aggies quarterback Adam Damante completed 15 of 26 passes for 146 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. Running back James Jones ran for 155 yards on 20 carries, with a touchdown, and receiver Josiah Thomas caught 4 passes for 60 yards. De'Marcus Peters had an interception and returned an interception for a touchdown; kicker Ilya Uvaydov made 2 of 2 field goals.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. completed 29 of 40 passes for 314 yards, with an interception. Running back Brock Glenn ran for 23 yards on 7 carries, with a touchdown, while receiver Jonathan Stafford Jr. caught 10 passes for 108 yards. Defender Jaylen Wester had an interception, and kicker Karl Campbell made 2 of 2 field goals.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pregame probabilities were estimates, not certainties: the model gave the New Mexico State Aggies 86.8% to win and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 13.2%. Its favorite was the New Mexico State Aggies to win, and the model's favorite won.

The model had the New Mexico State Aggies by 14.6 points, and they won by 21 points, more than projected

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

college football

New Mexico State Aggies vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Thu, Oct 1 · 8:00 PM ET

Final

34–13

The model before the game

New Mexico State Aggies
86.8%
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
13.2%

The model's favourite won.

The numbers

New Mexico State AggiesStatisticWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers
1turnovers1
17first downs18
352total yards349
206rushing yards35
146net passing yards314
29:35time of possession30:25
16.7%third-down conversion rate38.9%
Open the Game Center

Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET

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