Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Wales 2–1 Norway. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Wales host Norway in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the model identifying Norway as the side most likely to take the points. The expected-goals outlook also tilts toward the visitors, while the standings show Wales needing a response and Norway already positioned above them. The match is at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff.
What the model expects
The model gives Wales 16.8%, a draw 21.7% and Norway 61.6%. Its ordering is a Norway win (61.6%), then a draw (21.7%), then a Wales win (16.8%), making a Norway win the leading outcome in its forecast. These probabilities are estimates, but the direction of the prediction is clear: the model's lean is Norway to win.
The scoreline estimates offer a more specific picture, with 0-2 at 10.6%, 0-1 at 10% and 1-1 at 9.5%. Those are the model's likeliest exact scores, not a certainty about how the game will unfold. The two leading scorelines have Wales without a goal, while the other listed possibility has both sides scoring.
The model has over 2.5 goals at 58% and under 2.5 goals at 42%. It gives both teams a goal 52.9%; 47.1% is the chance that at least one side fails to score. Expected goals stand at 0.9 for Wales and 2.1 for Norway, reinforcing the forecast's emphasis on an attacking contribution from the visitors.