Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: US Virgin Islands 0–5 Saint Martin. Read the match analysis →
Preview
US Virgin Islands host Saint Martin in the CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday, October 1, with kick-off at 4:00 p.m. ET. The model’s forecast is led by a Saint Martin win; its expected-goals figures also set out contrasting scoring expectations for the sides. These probabilities are estimates, and the result outlook is clear even though the precise score is not.
What the model expects
The model gives US Virgin Islands 13%, a draw 17.9% and Saint Martin 69.1%. Its outcomes from likeliest down are a Saint Martin win (69.1%), then a draw (17.9%), then a US Virgin Islands win (13%), and its stated lean is Saint Martin to win. Expected goals are US Virgin Islands 0.9 and Saint Martin 2.9, projecting Saint Martin to produce the higher total. The leading exact-score forecasts are 0-2 at 9.6%, 0-3 at 8.9% and 0-1 at 7.4%. Each has US Virgin Islands scoring less than Saint Martin; these individual score probabilities describe possible outcomes, not a certainty about how the match will unfold.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 63.4% and under 2.5 goals at 36.6%. It puts both teams scoring at 53.9%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 46.1%. That leaves more than one possible scoring pattern within the forecast: the leading exact scores have US Virgin Islands failing to score, while the both-teams-to-score figure also allows for goals at both ends. The model’s outlook is not limited to one exact scoreline.