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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

US Virgin Islands 0-5 Saint Martin: Match Analysis & Model Review

US Virgin Islands 0-5 Saint Martin in the CONCACAF Nations League, Thursday, October 1: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Saint Martin beat US Virgin Islands 0-5, a 5-0 win for Saint Martin over US Virgin Islands in the CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday, October 1. The teams reached half-time at 0-1; by full-time, Saint Martin had built a five-goal lead at 0-5.

The attacking figures show the scale of Saint Martin’s pressure: 30 shots and 16 corners, against US Virgin Islands’ 5 shots and 3. US Virgin Islands finished with no goals, while Saint Martin scored five goals.

How it unfolded

Saint Martin took the lead through axel rigobert raga in the 44th minute, making it 0-1. That was the only goal before the interval. Rahim Denis extended the advantage in the 49th minute, making it 0-2.

Bertrand pierre arne scored in the 83rd minute to make it 0-3, then found the net again in the 86th minute. The same scorer completed a hat-trick in the 89th minute, sealing the final margin. Only Saint Martin ever led.

The numbers

Saint Martin had 56% possession, compared with 44% for US Virgin Islands. The shots-on-target count was 10 for Saint Martin and 1 for US Virgin Islands. The saves figures were 5 for US Virgin Islands and 1 for Saint Martin.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

The corner count was 16 for Saint Martin and 3 for US Virgin Islands. There were five goals in all. Bertrand pierre arne scored three goals, accounting for Saint Martin’s late burst as the margin grew.

Standout performers

Y. Montantin was Saint Martin’s best-rated player, with a rating of 9.5 and 2 assists. The rating and assists mark a strong individual contribution to the win.

For US Virgin Islands, Karson Kendall was the best-rated player, receiving 6.2. US Virgin Islands managed 1 shot on target but did not score.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s estimates gave US Virgin Islands a win probability of 10.2%, a draw 16.1%, and a Saint Martin win 73.8%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Saint Martin to win, and it gave the actual result 73.8%.

At full-time, the model's most likely outcome happened. Saint Martin’s lead at the interval became a decisive margin after the break, with the scoring sequence ending in a five-goal lead at 0-5.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

US Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin

Thu, Oct 1 · 4:00 PM ET · Bethlehem Soccer Stadium

Full time

0–5

Half-time 0–1

  • 44'axel rigobert raga0–1
  • 49'Rahim Denis0–2
  • 83'bertrand pierre arne0–3
  • 86'bertrand pierre arne0–4
  • 89'bertrand pierre arne0–5

The model before the game

US Virgin Islands
10.2%
Draw
16.1%
Saint Martin
73.8%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

US Virgin IslandsStatisticSaint Martin
5saves1
5shots30
3corners16
44%possession56%
1shots on target10
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