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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Union St. Gilloise 1-1 Real Sociedad: Match Analysis & Model Review

Union St. Gilloise 1-1 Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad finished 1-1 in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with the match played at Den Dreef Stadium. After a goalless first half, Real Sociedad went ahead and Union St. Gilloise equalised in the closing stages to share a 1-1 draw. Only Real Sociedad led, and the score was levelled once.

How it unfolded

The sides reached half-time at 0-0. Real Sociedad took the lead in the 46th minute, making it 0-1; Union St. Gilloise brought the score level in the 88th minute, setting it at 1-1.

Real Sociedad were the only side to lead, and Union St. Gilloise equalised once. The match ended with one goal for Union St. Gilloise and one goal for Real Sociedad, or two goals overall.

The numbers

Union St. Gilloise registered 16 shots, including 5 on target. Real Sociedad recorded 5 shots and 1 on target. Expected goals came to 2.09 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.65 for Real Sociedad. Those figures show that the teams’ attacking output did not translate into a winning margin for either side, with the late equaliser ensuring the final score remained level.

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Week
Predictions
My Tracker

Possession was 44% for Union St. Gilloise and 56% for Real Sociedad. The corner totals were 4 for Union St. Gilloise and 2 for Real Sociedad; the saves figures were 0 for Union St. Gilloise and 4 for Real Sociedad. The match statistics record differences in possession, shots, expected goals, corners and saves, while the goals were shared.

Standout performers

N. Havenaar was Union St. Gilloise’s best-rated player, earning 7.4. Beñat Turrientes received Real Sociedad’s highest rating, 7.8, with 1 goal. The rating and goal made Beñat Turrientes a standout contributor for Real Sociedad, who had taken the lead before Union St. Gilloise equalised late.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Union St. Gilloise a 42.3% chance of winning, a draw 26.2%, and a Real Sociedad win 31.4%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Union St. Gilloise to win; it gave the actual result 26.2%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The final score was the model's 1st-likeliest score. The match therefore ended in the outcome the model had assigned that probability to, rather than its most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad

Thu, Oct 15 · 12:45 PM ET · Den Dreef Stadium

Full time

1–1

Half-time 0–0

  • 46'Benat Turrientes0–1
  • 88'Sekou Abrahame Keita1–1

The model before the game

Union St. Gilloise
42.3%
Draw
26.2%
Real Sociedad
31.4%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Union St. GilloiseStatisticReal Sociedad
0saves4
16shots5
4corners2
44%possession56%
2.09expected goals0.65
5shots on target1
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