Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Udinese host AC Milan in Serie A on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 3:45 p.m. ET. The model points to an away win, while the contrasting recent records put the focus on whether Udinese can halt their run of defeats.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s likeliest result is an AC Milan win, and it gives AC Milan 54.9%, a draw 24.7% and Udinese 20.4%.
The goal outlook is restrained: under 2.5 goals at 54.8%, against over 2.5 goals at 45.2%, with the model’s lean under 2.5 goals. It gives both teams to score 49%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 51%. Expected goals stand at Udinese 1.1 and AC Milan 1.5, pointing to a modest scoring expectation for each side.
The leading exact-score possibilities are 0-1 (15.9%), 1-0 (12.4%) and 1-2 (8.6%). The first two have Udinese scoring once or not at all; the other gives AC Milan a return. Those are individual score estimates, not a prediction that the match must follow one of them.
Form and standings
Udinese arrive after 5 defeats in a row. Their last 5 results, listed most recent first, are LLLLL: 5 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 13 conceded. The latest was a 3-0 home defeat to Lecce on October 18. That run leaves them 17th in Serie A with 4 points from 7 games.
AC Milan have been unbeaten in their last 5. Their sequence across the last 5 games is WDWDD, comprising 2 wins and 3 draws and 10 goals scored and 6 conceded; most recently, a 3-2 home win against Atalanta on October 18. They are 7th in Serie A with 12 points from 6 games, and AC Milan sit above Udinese.