Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Final: Houston Cougars 27–17 UCF Knights. Read the game analysis →
Preview
The UCF Knights visit the Houston Cougars in college football on Saturday, October 3, with kickoff set for 12:00 p.m. ET. Both teams are 3-1 overall this season, and each is coming off a win.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s model gives the Houston Cougars 57.1% to win and the UCF Knights 42.9%. Those chances are estimates, not certainties; the model’s likelier result is a Houston Cougars win.
The model projects 30.3 points for the Houston Cougars and 28 for the UCF Knights, with 58.3 in all. Its projected margin is the Houston Cougars by 2.3 points.
Records and recent results
The Houston Cougars are 3-1 overall this season, with 178 points scored and 82 allowed in 4 games. The UCF Knights are 3-1, with 145 points scored and 61 allowed in 4 games; the two sides have the same record.
The Houston Cougars beat the Georgia Southern Eagles 42-28 on the road on September 26, and before that lost 28-26 on the road to the Texas Tech Red Raiders on September 18. The UCF Knights beat the TCU Horned Frogs 21-13 at home on September 26, and before that beat the Georgia State Panthers 44-30 at home on September 19.