Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Türkiye 1–4 Italy. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Türkiye host Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28, at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model sees a finely balanced fixture: Italy have a narrow edge in its win probabilities, while the expected goals and leading scoreline point to a close contest.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model makes Italy marginal favourites at 36.7%, with Türkiye at 35.7% and the draw at 27.7%; that is a slim separation, not a decisive lean. Bookmaker probabilities, with the margin removed, tell a similar story: 36.4% for Italy, 35.8% for Türkiye and 27.8% for the draw. The market and model are closely aligned, with the model giving Italy a slightly higher win probability and the draw a slightly lower one.
Expected goals are 1.3 for Türkiye and 1.4 for Italy, another indication of a narrow gap. The most likely score is 1-1 at 11.8%, followed by 0-0 at 10.5% and 0-1 at 8.3%. None commands a large share of the model’s outlook, so those scorelines describe plausible routes through a match the probabilities leave open.
The goals forecast is almost evenly split: over 2.5 goals at 50.7%, against under 2.5 goals at 49.3%. Both teams to score is the more likely side of that particular projection, at 54.9%, while the model gives 45.1% to not both scoring. Together, those figures favour neither a strongly open nor a clearly low-scoring expectation.