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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Türkiye 1-4 Italy: Match Analysis & Model Review

Türkiye 1-4 Italy in the UEFA Nations League, Monday, September 28: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Italy beat Türkiye 1-4 in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28, scoring before half-time and again shortly after the restart. Türkiye scored between Italy’s goals, but only Italy ever led.

The result was a 4-1 win for Italy over Türkiye. Italy’s advantage reached a three-goal lead at 0-3, and the half-time score was 0-3. Türkiye reduced the margin after half-time, before Italy restored it.

How it unfolded

Alessandro Bastoni opened the scoring for Italy in the 9th minute, making it 0-1. Davide Frattesi added a goal in the 22nd minute, and Michael Kayode made it 0-3 in the 27th minute. Italy went into the interval ahead 0-3.

Baris Alper Yilmaz scored for Türkiye in the 47th minute, bringing the score to 1-3. Pio Esposito replied for Italy in the 50th minute, setting the final score at 1-4. Italy established its lead, Türkiye pulled one back, and Italy scored again.

The numbers

Türkiye recorded 15 shots, with 3 on target; Italy recorded 14, with 8 on target. Possession was 54% for Türkiye and 46% for Italy. The corner counts were 6 and 2, respectively, while the save totals were 4 for Türkiye and 2 for Italy.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Türkiye had 54% of the ball, while Italy scored four goals. Türkiye’s 15 attempts produced 3 shots on target and one goal; Italy’s 14 attempts included 8 on target and yielded four goals. There were five goals overall.

Standout performers

B. Yılmaz was Türkiye’s best-rated player, earning 7.5 and scoring 1 goal. For Italy, F. Esposito received 8.9, with a contribution of 1 goal and 1 assist. His goal came in the 50th minute, after Türkiye had scored, and completed Italy’s scoring.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Türkiye a win probability of 33.9%, a draw 28.1%, and an Italy win 38%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Italy to win, assigning the eventual result 38%; the model's most likely outcome happened.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Türkiye vs Italy

Mon, Sep 28 · 2:45 PM ET · Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu

Full time

1–4

Half-time 0–3

  • 9'Alessandro Bastoni0–1
  • 22'Davide Frattesi0–2
  • 27'Michael Kayode0–3
  • 47'Baris Alper Yilmaz1–3
  • 50'Pio Esposito1–4

The model before the game

Türkiye
33.9%
Draw
28.1%
Italy
38%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

TürkiyeStatisticItaly
4saves2
15shots14
6corners2
54%possession46%
3shots on target8
Open the Match Center

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