Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Toulouse host Estac Troyes in Ligue 1 on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 11:15 a.m. ET. The contrast is clear: Toulouse arrive unbeaten in their last 4, while Estac Troyes come into the fixture after 5 defeats in a row. The model makes Toulouse the likelier winner, but its expected goals point to a contest that may be closer than that headline suggests.
What the model expects
These are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Toulouse win (55.6%), then a draw (24.6%), then an Estac Troyes win (19.7%). Its lean is Toulouse to win, while the most likely exact score is 1-1 (13%); 1-0 (10.8%) and 0-0 (10.7%) are also prominent possibilities. Those scorelines frame a game where a narrow margin or a draw remains plausible, rather than a forecast of a runaway result.
The goals model gives under 2.5 goals at 56.5% and over 2.5 goals at 43.5%. It puts both teams to score at 48.8%, with at least one side failing to score at 51.2%. Expected goals are 1.3 for Toulouse and 1.1 for Estac Troyes: a modest difference, consistent with the model's preference for the hosts but not a large separation in attacking output.
Form and standings
Toulouse have WDWDL across their recent games, amounting to 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest result was a 3-0 away win against Le Mans on October 16. That sequence gives them a steadier platform for this fixture, although the mix of wins, draws and a defeat does not suggest unbroken momentum.