Published October 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Toledo Rockets visit the Sacramento State Hornets in college football on Wednesday, November 4, with kickoff set for 7:00 p.m. ET. The model's likelier result is a Toledo Rockets win.
What the model expects
The model gives the Sacramento State Hornets 12% and the Toledo Rockets 88%; those chances are estimates, not certainties. Its projected points are Sacramento State Hornets 20.1, Toledo Rockets 35.3, with 55.4 in all, and its projected margin is the Toledo Rockets by 15.2 points.
Records and recent results
The Sacramento State Hornets are 1-7 overall, with 122 points scored and 263 allowed in 8 games. The Toledo Rockets are 6-2, with 299 points scored and 203 allowed in 8 games; the Toledo Rockets have the better record.
Most recently, the Sacramento State Hornets lost 34-17 on the road to the Ball State Cardinals on October 24, and before that lost 48-7 at home to the Ohio Bobcats on October 17 and lost 38-10 on the road to the Bowling Green Falcons on October 10. Most recently, the Toledo Rockets beat the Western Michigan Broncos 45-38 at home on October 24, and before that beat the Eastern Michigan Eagles 34-14 on the road on October 17 and lost 23-8 at home to the Buffalo Bulls on October 10.