Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Baylor Bears visit the UCF Knights in college football on Friday, October 30, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model makes the Baylor Bears the likelier result, while projecting a game with points from both teams. The model’s figures are estimates, not certainties.
What the model expects
The model gives the UCF Knights 39.6% and the Baylor Bears 60.4%. It projects 22.8 for the UCF Knights and 26.2 for the Baylor Bears, with 49 in all. The projected margin is the Baylor Bears by 3.4 points.
Records and recent results
The UCF Knights are 3-3 overall this season, with 190 points scored and 130 allowed in 6 games. The Baylor Bears are 4-2, with 180 points scored and 88 allowed in 6 games; the Baylor Bears have the better record.
Recent results offer a look at each team’s latest stretch. The UCF Knights lost 42-28 on the road to the Oklahoma State Cowboys on October 10, and before that lost 27-17 on the road to the Houston Cougars on October 3 and beat the TCU Horned Frogs 21-13 at home on September 26. The Baylor Bears lost 17-6 at home to the TCU Horned Frogs on October 17, and before that beat the Arizona State Sun Devils 55-19 on the road on October 3 and beat the Colorado Buffaloes 23-13 at home on September 26. The UCF Knights’ latest listed game was a road loss, while the Baylor Bears’ latest listed game was a home loss. Their earlier results in the supplied sequence include wins for both teams, along with another loss for the UCF Knights.