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Game analysis · college football

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Boise State Broncos 46-45 Texas State Bobcats: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 46-45 win for the Boise State Broncos over the Texas State Bobcats in college football, Saturday, October 31: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published November 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

The Boise State Broncos beat the Texas State Bobcats 46-45 in college football on Saturday, October 31. The Boise State Broncos had 29 first downs and held the ball for 37:01; the Texas State Bobcats finished with 16 first downs and 22:59 of possession. The winning margin was one point.

The numbers

The Boise State Broncos gained 484 total yards, with 367 net passing yards and 117 rushing yards. The Texas State Bobcats gained 429 total yards, including 327 net passing yards and 102 rushing yards.

The Boise State Broncos converted 56.2% of third downs and had 2 turnovers. The Texas State Bobcats converted 40% of third downs and had 1 turnover.

Top performers

For the Boise State Broncos, Maddux Madsen completed 24 of 33 passes for 236 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. The Boise State Broncos' Dylan Riley ran for 86 yards on 25 carries, with a touchdown, while the Boise State Broncos' Rasean Jones caught 9 passes for 117 yards, with 3 touchdowns. On defense, the Boise State Broncos' Mana Tuioti had an interception.

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Predictions
Games
Standings

For the Texas State Bobcats, Brad Jackson completed 23 of 38 passes for 327 yards, with 4 touchdowns. The Texas State Bobcats' Brad Jackson ran for 54 yards on 9 carries, with a touchdown. The Texas State Bobcats' Zechariah Sample caught 2 passes for 89 yards, with a touchdown; on defense, the Texas State Bobcats' Jayden Bradley had an interception. The Texas State Bobcats' Jacob Bonilla made 1 of 1 field goals. The Texas State Bobcats' Jayden Bradley returned an interception for a touchdown.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pregame chances were estimates: the model gave the Boise State Broncos 76.4% to win and the Texas State Bobcats 23.6%. The model's favorite was the Boise State Broncos to win; the model's favorite won. The model had the Boise State Broncos by 9.4 points, and they won by one point, less than projected.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

college football

Boise State Broncos vs Texas State Bobcats

Sat, Oct 31 · 10:00 PM ET

Final

46–45

The model before the game

Boise State Broncos
76.4%
Texas State Bobcats
23.6%

The model's favourite won.

The numbers

Boise State BroncosStatisticTexas State Bobcats
2turnovers1
29first downs16
484total yards429
117rushing yards102
367net passing yards327
37:01time of possession22:59
56.2%third-down conversion rate40%
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