Published October 24, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Texas State Bobcats visit the Boise State Broncos in college football on Saturday, October 31, with kickoff set for 10:00 p.m. ET. The matchup pairs two teams with distinct recent results and gives the model a clear expected winner.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s figures are estimates, not certainties. The model gives the Boise State Broncos 76.4% to win and the Texas State Bobcats 23.6%; its likelier result is a Boise State Broncos win.
The projected score is Boise State Broncos 36.5, Texas State Bobcats 27.1, with 63.6 points in all. The model projects the Boise State Broncos by 9.4 points. Those expectations put the Boise State Broncos in position to win a game with scoring from both sides.
Records and recent results
The Boise State Broncos are 6-1 overall, with 241 points scored and 144 allowed in 7 games. The Texas State Bobcats are 3-3, with 240 points scored and 193 allowed in 6 games. The Boise State Broncos have the better record.
The Boise State Broncos beat the Washington State Cougars 31-10 on the road on October 24, and before that beat the Fresno State Bulldogs 38-31 on the road on October 10 and beat the Utah State Aggies 37-18 at home on October 3. Their latest stretch includes results on the road and at home, with the most recent game coming away from home.
The Texas State Bobcats beat the Utah State Aggies 20-17 at home on October 24, and before that beat the Colorado State Rams 66-27 at home on October 15 and lost 31-29 on the road to the San Diego State Aztecs on October 3. The Texas State Bobcats have a home win, a road loss and another home win among those latest results, with their most recent game at home. The meeting gives both teams a fresh matchup after those listed games.