Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Tajikistan 2–4 Palestine. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Tajikistan host Palestine in a friendly on Monday, September 28 at 8:00 a.m. ET. The model’s outcome estimates put a Tajikistan win first, with a draw and an away win also in its forecast. Recent results give both sides a different backdrop: Tajikistan come off a defeat, while Palestine drew their latest match.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. Goalorithm’s outcome order is a Tajikistan win (51.8%), then a draw (31.8%), then a Palestine win (16.3%). The model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8% for the goals threshold, with the under figure marginally higher. It puts both teams to score at 47%, against 53% for at least one side to fail to score. That latter possibility includes matches in which one team scores; it does not mean the model expects a goalless draw.
Expected goals are 1.8 for Tajikistan and 0.8 for Palestine. The leading exact-score estimates are 1-0 at 12.4%, 0-0 at 11.2% and 2-0 at 11.2%. They cover a narrow home win, a goalless draw and a home win with a wider margin. The score estimates and the broader goal projections describe different parts of the forecast: one gives specific scorelines, while the others address overall scoring patterns.