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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Tajikistan 2-4 Palestine: Match Analysis & Model Review

Tajikistan 2-4 Palestine in a friendly, Monday, September 28: how the goals came and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 4-2 win for Palestine over Tajikistan in a friendly on Monday, September 28: Tajikistan 2-4 Palestine, after a first half in which the lead changed hands and the sides went into the interval level. Palestine moved in front just after the restart and added another goal later, turning the contest into a win after a game that had been finely balanced before half-time.

Tajikistan opened the scoring and regained the lead before Palestine equalised late in the half. Palestine’s response after the break was immediate, and Oday Dabbagh’s goal extended the advantage. Zoir Dzhuraboev was sent off for Tajikistan during the second half.

How it unfolded

Sheriddin Boboev gave Tajikistan the lead from the penalty spot in the 4th minute, making it 1-0. Assad Al-Hamlawi brought Palestine level in the 21st minute for 1-1, before Nozim Babajanov restored Tajikistan’s advantage in the 24th minute, with the score at 2-1.

Assad Al-Hamlawi struck again in the 45th minute (+3), bringing the teams to 2-2 at the interval. Alaa Aladdin Hassan put Palestine in front in the 46th minute, making it 2-3. Zoir Dzhuraboev was dismissed in the 53rd minute. Oday Dabbagh completed the scoring in the 74th minute, setting the final score at 2-4.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Tajikistan scored two goals; Palestine scored four goals, with six goals in all. Both sides led at some point; the lead changed hands once; the score was levelled twice. Palestine’s biggest advantage was a two-goal lead, with the score at 2-4. The numbers capture a match that swung from one side to the other in the first half before Palestine established its advantage after the break.

Standout performers

Assad Al-Hamlawi scored two goals, earning a brace. The first goal levelled the match after Tajikistan’s opener, and the second brought Palestine back on terms after Nozim Babajanov had put Tajikistan ahead. That contribution made Assad Al-Hamlawi central to Palestine’s response before the interval.

Sheriddin Boboev and Nozim Babajanov were the scorers for Tajikistan, while Alaa Aladdin Hassan and Oday Dabbagh supplied Palestine’s goals after the break. Their strikes turned the level score into a Palestine lead, with Oday Dabbagh adding the final goal.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Tajikistan a win probability of 51.9%, a draw probability of 31.8% and a Palestine win probability of 16.2%.

Its most likely outcome was Tajikistan to win. The model gave Palestine’s actual win a probability of 16.2%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Tajikistan vs Palestine

Mon, Sep 28 · 8:00 AM ET

Full time

2–4

Half-time 2–2

  • 4'Sheriddin Boboev (penalty)1–0
  • 21'Assad Al-Hamlawi1–1
  • 24'Nozim Babajanov2–1
  • 45'+3Assad Al-Hamlawi2–2
  • 46'Alaa Aladdin Hassan2–3
  • 74'Oday Dabbagh2–4

The model before the game

Tajikistan
51.9%
Draw
31.8%
Palestine
16.3%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

Open the Match Center

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