Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Suriname 2–1 Martinique. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Suriname host Martinique in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the model pointing to a home win as the likeliest outcome. The match is at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion, Paramaribo; the model’s figures also describe a game in which a clean sheet for at least one side is more likely than both teams scoring.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Suriname win (58%), then a draw (24.9%), then a Martinique win (17.1%). That makes a Suriname win its leading result, while a draw remains a notable possibility and a Martinique win is the least likely of the listed outcomes. These are estimates, and the model’s lean is Suriname to win.
The expected-goals figures are Suriname 1.7 and Martinique 0.7. The model puts under 2.5 goals at 57.5% and over 2.5 goals at 42.5%; on both teams scoring, it gives 39.6%, against 60.4% for at least one side failing to score. That latter measure is not a prediction of a goalless draw: it also includes matches where only one team scores.
The most likely exact score is 1-0 at 16.4%, followed by 2-0 at 13.1% and 0-0 at 11.6%. Those scorelines give a sense of the model’s projected range: its leading outcomes all keep the total goals modest, though the broader goals assessment still allows for a higher-scoring match.