Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Suriname 0–0 Guatemala. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Suriname host Guatemala in the CONCACAF Nations League on Friday, October 2 at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the model's likeliest result a Suriname win. The fixture is at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion, Paramaribo, and the model projects expected goals of 1.5 for Suriname and 1.4 for Guatemala.
The model's likeliest exact score is 1-1. That score prediction and the match-outcome forecast describe different parts of the model's view: one names an exact score, while the other identifies the result it considers likeliest.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Suriname a 47.4% chance of winning, with a draw at 24.1% and a Guatemala win at 28.5%. Its outcomes from likeliest down are a Suriname win (47.4%), then a Guatemala win (28.5%), then a draw (24.1%).
The expected-goals figures are 1.5 for Suriname and 1.4 for Guatemala. They set out the model's scoring projection for each side, rather than predicting a precise final score. Its leading exact-score forecasts are 1-1 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.4%) and 0-1 (8.5%).
For the total, the model assigns over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%. It gives both teams scoring a 52.5% chance, and at least one side failing to score a 47.5% chance. These are separate views of the scoring outlook: one addresses the total number of goals, while the other concerns whether both sides score.