Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Sunderland host Leeds in the Premier League on Sunday, October 25, with Sunderland looking to end a difficult run and Leeds arriving after a draw with Manchester United. Goalorithm’s model makes Leeds the likeliest winners, while its goals forecast points toward a low-scoring match.
The game is at Stadium of Light, Sunderland, with kick-off scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET. Sunderland’s latest result was a 2-0 away defeat to Bournemouth on October 18; Leeds’ was a 1-1 home draw with Manchester United on October 18.
What the model expects
The model’s figures are estimates. It gives Sunderland 30.6%, a draw 30.8% and Leeds 38.6%; its likeliest result is a Leeds win.
The scoring outlook leans to under 2.5 goals: the model gives under 2.5 goals at 77.1% and over 2.5 goals at 22.9%. It puts both teams to score at 28.6%, while 71.4% is the chance that at least one side fails to score. Expected goals are 0.6 for Sunderland and 1 for Leeds. The likeliest score predictions are 0-0 (23.9%), 0-1 (17.7%) and 1-1 (13.4%).
The bookmakers’ outcomes from likeliest down are a Leeds win (37.1%), then a Sunderland win (34.7%), then a draw (28.2%). On the away win, the model gives a Leeds win 38.6%, above the bookmakers' 37.1%.
Form and standings
Sunderland’s last 5 results read LLLLD: 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their latest outing, a 2-0 away defeat to Bournemouth on October 18, extended the sequence to 4 defeats in a row. They sit 19th in Premier League with 4 points from 7 games.