Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Arsenal host Everton in the Premier League on Saturday, October 24, with the meeting set for 10:00 a.m. ET at Emirates Stadium, London. Arsenal arrive after a 1-0 away win against Nottingham Forest on October 18, while Everton come off a 2-0 home defeat to Chelsea on October 17; the model points to a win for the hosts, though its projected scorelines also include a draw.
The model’s probabilities are estimates. They give Arsenal 64.1%, a draw 23% and Everton 12.8%.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is an Arsenal win. Its expected-goals figures are 1.5 for Arsenal and 0.8 for Everton, a projection that puts the hosts ahead without ruling out a close contest. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 14.6%; 1-1 at 13.6% and 1-0 at 13.5% are also among the leading outcomes.
The model gives under 2.5 goals at 61.4% and over 2.5 goals at 38.6%. It puts both teams scoring at 40.7%, while 59.3% is its figure for at least one side failing to score. Those estimates make a low-scoring game a plausible reading, even as the model’s leading exact score is goalless.
Form and standings
Arsenal have WWLWW across their last 5 games, a record of 4 wins and 1 defeat, with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 away win against Nottingham Forest on October 18, and they are on 2 wins in a row. That sequence gives the hosts a positive platform, though the defeat in their recent form means it has not been an uninterrupted run.