Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Coventry host Fulham in the Premier League on Saturday, October 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Fulham win, but its outcome probabilities leave a close contest in view rather than a clear separation between the sides.
The recent results give the fixture contrasting backdrops: Coventry arrive after a 4-1 home win against Newcastle on October 12, while Fulham most recently recorded a 1-0 home win against Hull City on October 17. Those results are part of the picture, but the model’s forecast also points to a match in which a draw remains a substantial possibility.
What the model expects
The model gives Coventry 33.2% to win, 28.4% for a draw and Fulham 38.4%. These are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Fulham win; expected goals are 1.1 for Coventry and 1.3 for Fulham.
The model’s goals forecast leans toward under 2.5 goals at 56.3%, with over 2.5 goals at 43.7% also in the picture. It gives both teams a chance to score at 48.9%, while 51.1% is the probability that at least one side fails to score. That latter figure includes matches with one team scoring and does not mean the model expects a goalless draw.
The most likely scorelines are 1-1 at 14.7%, 0-0 at 12.7% and 0-1 at 8.9%. The range matters: the leading score is level, while the next listed outcomes give Fulham a clean-sheet win or leave the match without a goal.