Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Chelsea host Tottenham in the Premier League on Saturday, October 24 at 12:30 p.m. ET. The model points to a Chelsea win, while the teams arrive with contrasting recent records and a substantial gap between them in the table.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is a Chelsea win (54.6%), then a draw (23.3%), then a Tottenham win (22.1%), making a Chelsea win the likeliest result. Its expected-goals figures are Chelsea 2.5 and Tottenham 1.2, with 2-1 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (8%) its leading exact-score predictions.
The goals forecast leans towards over 2.5 goals at 69.9%, rather than under 2.5 goals at 30.1%. The model gives both teams a chance of scoring at 62.5%; its figure for at least one team failing to score is 37.5%. Its stated lean is over 2.5 goals.
Form and standings
Chelsea’s recent sequence is WWLDL, amounting to 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their current run is 2 wins in a row. Tottenham’s sequence is DLDDL: 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 6 conceded. They are without a win in their last 5.
Chelsea sit 4th in Premier League with 13 points from 7 games, while Tottenham sit 20th in Premier League with 3 points from 6 games. In the table, Chelsea sit above Tottenham. The records give this meeting a clear contrast: Chelsea have collected points consistently enough to occupy a higher position, while Tottenham’s listed sequence contains no wins.