Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: St. Lucia 5–2 Bermuda. Read the match analysis →
Preview
St. Lucia host Bermuda in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 8:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model makes a Bermuda win its likeliest result, while also assigning meaningful possibilities to a St. Lucia win and a draw. The fixture therefore arrives with the model pointing towards the visitors, but not to a single outcome as a certainty.
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s expected-goals figures are 1.3 for St. Lucia and 1.5 for Bermuda; they offer a further part of its forecast alongside the result probabilities.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Bermuda win (39.5%), then a St. Lucia win (33.6%), then a draw (26.9%). It gives St. Lucia a win probability of 33.6%, a draw probability of 26.9% and Bermuda a win probability of 39.5%. Its likeliest result is a Bermuda win. Those figures set out a clear order of outcomes without removing the possibility of either side taking the points or the teams sharing them.
The leading exact-score forecast is 1-1 at 10.4%. The next listed possibilities are 0-1 at 9.6% and 1-0 at 8.6%. Together, these score forecasts cover a draw and a win for each team; no single scoreline accounts for more than its stated probability.
On total goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 53.3% and under 2.5 goals at 46.7%. It assigns 56.8% to both teams scoring and 43.2% to at least one side failing to score. The latter figure concerns a team failing to score, not a prediction of a goalless draw. These are separate readings of the goals outlook, alongside the model’s expected-goals figures for each team.