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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

St. Lucia 5-2 Bermuda: Match Analysis & Model Review

St. Lucia 5-2 Bermuda in the CONCACAF Nations League, Monday, September 28: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

St. Lucia beat Bermuda 5-2 in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, September 28, completing a 5-2 win for St. Lucia over Bermuda. The teams went in at 3-1 at half-time, with the final total reaching seven goals.

The scoreline gives the clearest account of the outcome: St. Lucia finished with five goals, while Bermuda replied with two goals. The available match figures also show how the result sat alongside the sides’ shooting, possession and defensive work, while offering no account of the individual moments behind the goals.

The numbers

St. Lucia registered 5 shots, of which 3 were on target. Bermuda recorded 3 shots and 1 on target. Those figures describe the attempts and accuracy recorded, but do not identify when the chances came or how the goals were scored.

Possession was 49% for St. Lucia and 51% for Bermuda. The teams each recorded 2 and 2 corners, so the corner count was level. The saves figures were 1 for St. Lucia and 1 for Bermuda. Together, the numbers provide a compact picture of the match: a high-scoring final result, shot totals, possession shares, corners and saves, without details about the passage of play that produced them.

The match was played at Darren Sammy National Cricket Stadium. No goal timings or individual scorer information is available here, so the half-time score and final score are the useful markers of how the match stood at the break and where it finished.

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How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave St. Lucia a win probability of 37.4%, a draw probability of 22.2% and Bermuda a win probability of 40.4%. These are estimates of the possible outcomes, not a description of what happened on the pitch.

The model’s most likely outcome was Bermuda to win. It gave the actual result a probability of 37.4%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The final score therefore delivered a clear outcome, while the pre-match assessment had identified a different result as the likeliest.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

St. Lucia vs Bermuda

Mon, Sep 28 · 8:00 PM ET · Darren Sammy National Cricket Stadium

Full time

5–2

Half-time 3–1

The model before the game

St. Lucia
37.4%
Draw
22.2%
Bermuda
40.4%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

St. LuciaStatisticBermuda
1saves1
5shots3
2corners2
49%possession51%
3shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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