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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Sparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom: Match Analysis & Model Review

Sparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Sparta Praha and Lillestrom finished 1-1 in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15: a 1-1 draw. After a goalless interval, Sparta Praha moved ahead, but Lillestrom scored in added time to finish the match level. The outcome went against a game in which Sparta Praha registered more attempts and more shots on target, while the scoreline reflected a goal for each side.

How it unfolded

The teams went into half-time at 0-0. Josimar Alcocer put Sparta Praha in front in the 56th minute, changing the score to 1-0. Sparta Praha therefore carried the lead into the closing stages, but Thomas Lehne Olsen scored for Lillestrom in the 90th minute (+1) to make it 1-1. Only Sparta Praha ever led; the score was levelled once.

The numbers

Sparta Praha had 15 shots, including 8 on target; Lillestrom recorded 6 shots and 2 on target. Possession was 53% for Sparta Praha and 47% for Lillestrom. The expected-goals figures were 1.12 for Sparta Praha and 0.8 for Lillestrom, while the corner count was 6 to Sparta Praha and 1 to Lillestrom. The save figures were 1 for Sparta Praha and 6 for Lillestrom. Across the match, Sparta Praha scored one goal and Lillestrom scored one goal, making two goals overall. The figures describe a match in which Sparta Praha generated repeated attempts, but Lillestrom kept the score level with its late goal.

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Standout performers

J. Alcócer was Sparta Praha's best-rated player, with a rating of 8.0 and 1 goal. P. Dahlberg earned Lillestrom's best rating, 7.3. The scoring contribution and rating make J. Alcócer a clear presence in the match record, while P. Dahlberg's rating identifies the leading performer for Lillestrom.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, the model gave Sparta Praha a 70.9% chance of winning, a draw 18.5%, and a Lillestrom win 10.6%. These probabilities are estimates. Its most likely outcome was Sparta Praha to win; the model gave the actual result 18.5%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The late equaliser settled the match as a draw, rather than the model's selected outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom

Thu, Oct 15 · 12:45 PM ET · Stadion Letná

Full time

1–1

Half-time 0–0

  • 56'Josimar Alcocer1–0
  • 90'+1Thomas Lehne Olsen1–1

The model before the game

Sparta Praha
70.9%
Draw
18.5%
Lillestrom
10.6%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Sparta PrahaStatisticLillestrom
1saves6
15shots6
6corners1
53%possession47%
1.12expected goals0.8
8shots on target2
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