Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: South Korea 1–4 Uruguay. Read the match analysis →
Preview
South Korea host Uruguay in a friendly on Monday, September 28 at 7:00 a.m. ET. The model puts South Korea’s win outcome first, but its projections also leave a substantial share of the chances with a draw or a Uruguay victory. Recent results set up a contrast: South Korea arrive after a win, while Uruguay’s latest outing was a defeat.
The model’s figures are estimates. They make South Korea the likeliest winner, but the draw and away-win probabilities keep the forecast open rather than decisive.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a South Korea win (41.8%), then a Uruguay win (29.8%), then a draw (28.5%). Its goal projections are 1.6 for South Korea and 0.8 for Uruguay, pointing to more expected scoring from the hosts. The likeliest exact score is 1-0 (13.6%), followed by 0-0 (13.4%) and 2-0 (11.1%); none accounts for a large share of the model’s forecast.
The goals estimates lean toward under 2.5 goals at 54.2%, while the model gives 54.9% to at least one side failing to score. That is not a prediction of a goalless draw: a team can keep a clean sheet in a match with goals. The both-teams-to-score estimate is 45.1%, so the model sees a meaningful possibility of both sides getting on the board, even as it gives the edge to a shutout for at least one team.
The model’s likeliest result is a South Korea win. Its view is close to the bookmakers’ assessment: the model gives a South Korea win 41.8%, in line with the bookmakers' 41.7%. The market’s ordering is a South Korea win (41.7%), then a Uruguay win (30.5%), then a draw (27.8%), also placing a South Korea win first. That alignment is limited to the broad outcome ranking; the model’s expected goals and score projections offer a separate picture of how the game might develop.