Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Somalia 0–2 Ivory Coast. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Somalia host Ivory Coast in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29 at 3:00 p.m. ET, with the model’s outlook pointing strongly towards the visitors. The fixture is at Accra Sports Stadium, Accra; the central question in the numbers is whether Somalia can disrupt a projection that gives Ivory Coast the likeliest result.
The model’s view is an estimate, but its expected-goals figures outline a clear scoring imbalance: Somalia 0.8, Ivory Coast 3. That forecast makes the visitors’ attacking contribution central to the match preview, while Somalia’s projected total leaves little room for a high-scoring return from the hosts. These are forecasts, not a description of what has happened on the pitch; the match itself will determine whether the expected pattern takes shape.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are an Ivory Coast win (90.5%), then a draw (7.2%), then a Somalia win (2.3%). Its likeliest result is an Ivory Coast win. That ordering gives Ivory Coast a strong position in the model’s forecast, while a draw and a Somalia win remain part of the possible outcomes rather than being excluded.
The leading exact-score predictions are 0-2 (10.7%), 0-3 (10.2%) and 0-1 (7.9%). All three envisage Ivory Coast scoring and Somalia failing to score, giving the model a consistent picture of how a visitor victory could look. They are the leading individual scorelines, not a guarantee of the final score, and the model also allows for outcomes beyond those listed.