Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Slovenia 2–0 FYR Macedonia. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Slovenia host FYR Macedonia in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Slovenia win, while its expected-goals figures set out a projected scoring contribution for each side. The fixture is at Stožice Stadium, Ljubljana, with the model’s outlook also covering the possibility of a draw and the goal totals it considers likeliest.
What the model expects
The model orders the outcomes as a Slovenia win (56.2%), then a draw (26.2%), then an FYR Macedonia win (17.6%), with Slovenia to win. Its expected-goals projection is 1.6 for Slovenia and 0.6 for FYR Macedonia. Those figures frame the model’s match outlook, while its outcome probabilities leave room for each of the three results.
For total goals, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 62.5% and over 2.5 goals at 37.5%. It assigns 35.8% to both teams scoring, and 64.2% to at least one side failing to score. That latter possibility is not limited to a goalless draw: it also covers a game in which one team scores and the other does not.
The three likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (16.9%), 0-0 (15.2%) and 2-0 (13.4%). They offer a range of possible outcomes within the model’s forecast, rather than a single exact-score call. The model’s result probabilities and scoreline projections are distinct parts of its assessment: one sets out the possible match results, while the other gives its leading exact scores.