Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Serbia 1–2 Netherlands. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Serbia host Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The model expects Netherlands to have the stronger chance of taking the points, with its likeliest result a Netherlands win.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Netherlands win (66.1%), then a draw (20.2%), then a Serbia win (13.6%). Its expected-goals figures are 0.8 for Serbia and 2.2 for Netherlands, pointing to a substantial attacking contribution from the visitors in its forecast.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 56.9% and under 2.5 goals at 43.1%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring of 48.7%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 51.3%. Those estimates leave room for a match in which Serbia find a way onto the scoresheet, but the forecast’s leading exact-score possibilities all have Netherlands scoring at least once: 0-2 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.1%) and 1-1 (8.9%).
The model’s lean is Netherlands to win. These probabilities are estimates, not certainties; the clearest direction in the forecast is towards an away win, while a draw remains a meaningful alternative.