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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Serbia 1-2 Netherlands: Match Analysis & Model Review

Serbia 1-2 Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League, Sunday, September 27: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Netherlands beat Serbia 1-2 in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27, with Mexx Meerdink scoring two goals. Serbia levelled after the interval, but Mexx Meerdink restored the Netherlands lead.

The result was shaped by two separate spells in which Netherlands moved ahead, and by Serbia’s response after the break. Mexx Meerdink scored both Netherlands goals, while Serbia’s equaliser briefly put the match back on level terms. At half-time, the score was 0-1.

How it unfolded

Mexx Meerdink opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 30th minute, putting Netherlands ahead at 0-1. Luka Jovic brought Serbia level in the 46th minute, making it 1-1. Mexx Meerdink struck again in the 69th minute, putting Netherlands in front at 1-2. Only Netherlands ever led, twice; the score was levelled once.

The sequence left Serbia needing another response after the second Netherlands goal. It did not arrive, and the final score remained 1-2.

The numbers

The shot count was 8 for Serbia and 22 for Netherlands, while efforts on target stood at 4 and 6. Possession was 30% for Serbia and 70% for Netherlands; the corner count was 1 for Serbia and 4 for Netherlands. Both sides registered efforts on target.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

The goal return was one goal for Serbia and two goals for Netherlands, three goals in all. Serbia’s goalkeeper made 4 saves, while Netherlands’ goalkeeper made 3. Serbia scored once, through its equaliser, while Netherlands scored twice.

Standout performers

M. Meerdink was Netherlands’ best-rated player, with a rating of 8.2 and 2 goals. Mexx Meerdink scored both Netherlands goals, including the goal that put the side back in front. His contribution had a direct bearing on the result: the opening goal gave Netherlands the lead, and the later strike restored it after Serbia had levelled.

L. Jović was Serbia’s best-rated player, rated 7.7 with 1 goal. The equaliser brought Serbia level, but Netherlands scored again later in the match.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Serbia a win probability of 18.8%, a draw 24%, and a Netherlands win 57.2%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Netherlands to win, and it assigned that outcome 57.2%. The model's most likely outcome happened.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Serbia vs Netherlands

Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM ET · Rajko Mitić Stadion

Full time

1–2

Half-time 0–1

  • 30'Mexx Meerdink (penalty)0–1
  • 46'Luka Jovic1–1
  • 69'Mexx Meerdink1–2

The model before the game

Serbia
18.8%
Draw
24%
Netherlands
57.2%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

SerbiaStatisticNetherlands
4saves3
8shots22
1corners4
30%possession70%
4shots on target6
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