Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
SC Freiburg host Bayern München in Bundesliga on Sunday, October 25, with the sides arriving from contrasting latest results: Freiburg lost away to Bayer Leverkusen, while Bayern beat RB Leipzig at home. The model’s call is a Bayern win, with goals at both ends a strong part of its forecast.
What the model expects
These are estimates, and the model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Bayern München win (64.8%), then an SC Freiburg win (17.8%), then a draw (17.4%). Its likeliest result is a Bayern München win. The model’s lean is Bayern München to win, and its expected goals are 1.4 for SC Freiburg and 2.1 for Bayern München.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 67.3% and under 2.5 goals at 32.7% on the goals line. It gives both teams scoring 65.7%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 34.3%. Its leading exact-score forecasts are 1-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The bookmakers’ outcomes from likeliest down are a Bayern München win (63.9%), then an SC Freiburg win (21.8%), then a draw (14.3%); the model’s position against those prices is that the model gives a Bayern München win 64.8%, in line with the bookmakers' 63.9%.
Form and standings
Freiburg’s recent sequence is LWDWW, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and 11 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their latest match was a 2-1 away defeat to Bayer Leverkusen on October 18. Bayern’s sequence is WDWWD, bringing 3 wins and 2 draws and 17 goals scored and 4 conceded; they arrive unbeaten in their last 5 after a 6-1 home win against RB Leipzig on October 17.