Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: San Marino 0–3 Albania. Read the match analysis →
Preview
San Marino host Albania in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The table positions frame a meeting between a side yet to take points and an Albania team already off the mark, while the model makes the visitors’ win its clear central expectation. The focus is whether the projected gap in attacking output is reflected in the scoreline.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is an Albania win (88.1%), then a draw (8.5%), then a San Marino win (3.4%), making an Albania win the likeliest result. That is also the model’s stated lean, rather than a forecast of a draw or a San Marino win.
The goals projection points towards over 2.5 goals at 65.7%, with under 2.5 goals at 34.3% the alternative. Both teams score at 41.9%; the model assigns 58.1% to at least one side failing to score. Those figures describe separate questions: the likely total and whether each team contributes a goal are not the same measure.
Expected goals are 0.6 for San Marino and 2.8 for Albania. The leading score predictions are 0-2 at 13.3%, 0-3 at 11.7%, and 0-1 at 10.1%. Each has Albania scoring more than San Marino, while the exact margin varies across the model’s most likely scorelines.
The bookmakers’ outcome order is an Albania win (91.8%), then a draw (5.4%), then a San Marino win (2.8%). On the direct comparison, the model gives an Albania win 88.1%, below the bookmakers' 91.8%. The market and the model therefore differ in the strength of their expectation for an Albania victory, even though both place that outcome first.