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Game analysis · college football

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Missouri State Bears 24-3 Sam Houston Bearkats: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 24-3 win for the Missouri State Bears over the Sam Houston Bearkats in college football, Tuesday, October 27: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

The Missouri State Bears beat the Sam Houston Bearkats 24-3 in college football on Tuesday, October 27. The Missouri State Bears finished with 129 rushing yards and allowed the Sam Houston Bearkats just 26 on the ground, while the Sam Houston Bearkats committed 1 turnover to the Missouri State Bears' 0.

The numbers

The Missouri State Bears totaled 313 yards, including 184 net passing yards; the Sam Houston Bearkats had 284 total yards and 258 net passing yards. The Missouri State Bears collected 16 first downs and possessed the ball for 30:52; the Sam Houston Bearkats had 17 first downs and 29:08 of possession. The Missouri State Bears converted 36.4% of third downs, and the Sam Houston Bearkats converted 35.7%.

Top performers

For the Missouri State Bears, Henry Belin IV completed 12 of 18 passes for 184 yards, with 2 touchdowns, while Connor Lair ran for 75 yards on 19 carries, with a touchdown and Jmariyae Robinson caught 7 passes for 102 yards, with a touchdown. Martavis Blackmon had a sack for the Missouri State Bears; Yousef Obeid made 1 of 2 field goals.

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Kennesaw State Owls vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Prediction & Preview

Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in college football, Wednesday, October 28. Goalorithm's model makes a Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders win the likelier result at 52%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

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Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction & Preview

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at New Mexico State Aggies in college football, Wednesday, October 28. Goalorithm's model makes a Jacksonville State Gamecocks win the likelier result at 54%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

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For the Sam Houston Bearkats, DJ Bailey completed 20 of 35 passes for 258 yards, while MJ Dowdy ran for 18 yards on 8 carries and Grady O'Neill caught 6 passes for 74 yards. Josh Alexander-Felton had 2 sacks for the Sam Houston Bearkats, and Sam Carpenter made 1 of 2 field goals.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pregame figures were estimates: the model gave the Missouri State Bears 50.2% to win and the Sam Houston Bearkats 49.8%. Its favorite was the Missouri State Bears to win; the model's favorite won.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

college football

Missouri State Bears vs Sam Houston Bearkats

Tue, Oct 27 · 8:00 PM ET

Final

24–3

The model before the game

Missouri State Bears
50.2%
Sam Houston Bearkats
49.8%

The model's favourite won.

The numbers

Missouri State BearsStatisticSam Houston Bearkats
0turnovers1
16first downs17
313total yards284
129rushing yards26
184net passing yards258
30:52time of possession29:08
36.4%third-down conversion rate35.7%
Open the Game Center

Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

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Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green in college football, Thursday, October 29. Goalorithm's model makes a North Texas Mean Green win the likelier result at 77%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

Thu, Oct 29 · 7:30 PM ET

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Tulane Green Wave at Charlotte 49ers in college football, Friday, October 30. Goalorithm's model makes a Tulane Green Wave win the likelier result at 83%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

Fri, Oct 30 · 7:00 PM ET