Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Russia 2–0 Iran. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Russia host Iran in a friendly on Tuesday, September 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET, with the model’s likeliest outcome a Russia win. The match is at Ak Bars Arena, Kazan. The model also sees goals on both sides as a prominent possibility, while its forecast leaves a draw and an Iran win in play.
The sides arrive with contrasting recent results: Russia have won their latest listed match, while Iran are coming off a defeat. Their recent meetings offer another thread to the preview, with the latest ending Russia 2-1 Iran (October 2025). Together, those details frame a fixture with a model lean toward Russia, but no single projected score dominates the forecast.
What the model expects
The model gives Russia 49.4% to win, a draw 24.2%, and Iran 26.4%. These probabilities are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Russia win; the other outcomes remain part of its forecast.
The goals estimate leans toward over 2.5 goals at 65.7%, while under 2.5 goals at 34.3% is the other side of the model’s forecast. Both teams score in 66.3% of its projections; at least one fails to score in 33.7%. The model therefore makes goals on both sides a prominent possibility, while allowing for either team to be kept off the scoresheet.
Expected goals are 1.8 for Russia and 1.6 for Iran. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 10%, followed by 2-1 at 7.5% and 1-2 at 6.6%. The leading listed score is level, while the other listed outcomes point to either side scoring more. The spread of projected scores captures the uncertainty around the result even with Russia as the model’s likeliest winner.