Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Rep. Of Ireland 2–2 Austria. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Rep. Of Ireland host Austria in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the group table putting the visitors above their hosts. The model also points towards Austria, while its goals outlook suggests a match where scoring may be limited.
What the model expects
The model's likeliest result is an Austria win, with the outcomes ordered as an Austria win (44.1%), then a draw (29.1%), then a Rep. Of Ireland win (26.7%). These probabilities are estimates. The forecast gives Austria the clearest route to the points, but leaves a draw and a Rep. Of Ireland win as meaningful possibilities rather than ruling either out.
Expected goals are 0.9 for Rep. Of Ireland and 1.3 for Austria. The model puts under 2.5 goals at 61.8% and over 2.5 goals at 38.2%, making under 2.5 goals its view of the match. It gives both teams to score 43.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 56.8%; that outcome includes results other than a goalless draw.
The likeliest exact scores are 0-0 (15.3%), 0-1 (13.3%) and 1-1 (11.9%). A level score leads the individual score forecasts, with an Austria win also among the leading possibilities. Taken together, the model's outlook is for a contest in which a narrow margin is more consistent with its goal expectation than a high-scoring exchange.