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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Red Bull Salzburg 0-4 AC Milan: Match Analysis & Model Review

Red Bull Salzburg 0-4 AC Milan in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

AC Milan beat Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with a 4-0 win for AC Milan over Red Bull Salzburg. The final score was 0-4. Alphadjo Cissè scored three goals for AC Milan, completing a hat-trick, and Gonçalo Ramos added the other goal.

How it unfolded

Cissè opened the scoring in the 15th minute, making it 0-1, then scored again in the 32nd minute for 0-2. AC Milan went into half-time ahead 0-2. Cissè completed his hat-trick in the 49th minute, making it 0-3; Ramos added the fourth in the 72nd minute. Filippo Terracciano was sent off in the 83rd minute. AC Milan were the only side to lead and held a four-goal lead at 0-4.

The numbers

Red Bull Salzburg had 14 shots, with 2 on target; AC Milan had 15, with 10 on target. The expected-goals figures were 0.86 for Salzburg and 3.83 for Milan. Salzburg had 52% possession and Milan 48%. The corner count was 3 to 2, and the goalkeepers made 5 and 2 saves respectively.

The shot totals were close, but the on-target figures and expected goals show a clear difference in the sides’ attacking threat. Salzburg had more of the ball, yet recorded fewer attempts on target and a lower expected-goals figure. AC Milan’s output was reflected in the scoreline: Salzburg finished with no goals, while Milan scored four goals, making four goals in all. The possession share did not bring Salzburg a goal, while Milan converted its chances into a decisive result.

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Standout performers

Cissè was AC Milan’s standout, scoring 3 goals and earning a rating of 9.7. His goals came across the match, with the final one completing his hat-trick after the interval. A. Barry was Red Bull Salzburg’s best-rated player, with a rating of 6.9.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Red Bull Salzburg a 30.2% chance of winning, a draw 25.4%, and an AC Milan win 44.4%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was AC Milan to win, and the model's most likely outcome happened. The outcome probability was 44.4%. The model’s call aligned with the result, while the final score reflected AC Milan’s advantage in shots on target and expected goals.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

Thu, Oct 15 · 12:45 PM ET · Red Bull Arena

Full time

0–4

Half-time 0–2

  • 15'Alphadjo Cissè0–1
  • 32'Alphadjo Cissè0–2
  • 49'Alphadjo Cissè0–3
  • 72'Gonçalo Ramos0–4

The model before the game

Red Bull Salzburg
30.2%
Draw
25.4%
AC Milan
44.4%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Red Bull SalzburgStatisticAC Milan
5saves2
14shots15
3corners2
52%possession48%
0.86expected goals3.83
2shots on target10
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