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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

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Philadelphia Union 4-2 Orlando City SC: Match Analysis & Model Review

Philadelphia Union 4-2 Orlando City SC in Major League Soccer, Saturday, September 26: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Match report

Philadelphia Union beat Orlando City SC in Major League Soccer at Talen Energy Stadium, with a 4-2 win for Philadelphia Union over Orlando City SC. The score was 2-0 at the break, and Philadelphia Union extended its advantage to 4-0 before Orlando City SC scored twice late on.

The final margin reflected a sharp contrast between possession and threat: Orlando City SC had more of the ball, but Philadelphia Union registered far more shots and all of the match’s efforts on target. Milan Iloski supplied the decisive finishing with a hat-trick.

How it unfolded

Milan Iloski opened the scoring for Philadelphia Union from the penalty spot in the 11th minute, making it 1-0. Milan Iloski doubled the advantage in the 19th minute; Philadelphia Union went into the interval leading 2-0.

Indiana Vassilev made it 3-0 in the 47th minute, and Milan Iloski completed the scoring for Philadelphia Union in the 51st minute, moving the score to 4-0. Orlando City SC responded through Iván Angulo in the 78th minute, then Martin Ojeda scored in the 90th minute to set the final score at 4-2.

The numbers

Philadelphia Union had 12 shots to Orlando City SC’s 3, and the on-target count was 4 to 0. That gap offers a clear explanation for the result: Philadelphia Union created the more direct threat and converted its chances, while Orlando City SC had no shot on target despite controlling 63% of possession.

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The possession split went 37% to 63% in Orlando City SC’s favour, but that control did not translate into greater attacking output. Philadelphia Union also led corners 5 to 3. The save totals were 0 for Philadelphia Union and 2 for Orlando City SC. The match produced six goals, with Philadelphia Union scoring four goals and Orlando City SC scoring two goals; the late goals narrowed the scoreline after Philadelphia Union had established a four-goal lead at 4-0.

Standout performers

M. Iloski was Philadelphia Union’s best-rated player, receiving 9.3 after scoring 3 goals. That performance shaped the match: Milan Iloski scored three goals, with the penalty opening the scoring and the later finishes extending the lead.

For Orlando City SC, M. Ojeda earned the team’s highest rating, 7.8, and finished with 1 goal. His late goal added to Orlando City SC’s response, but came after the match had reached 4-0.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s model gave Philadelphia Union a 45% chance of winning, compared with 26% for a draw and 29% for Orlando City SC. These probabilities are estimates. The model made Philadelphia Union to win its most likely outcome, assigning the eventual result 45%; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The prediction was borne out, though the match’s statistical pattern was not simply a possession story. Orlando City SC held more of the ball, while Philadelphia Union had the advantage in shots, shots on target and goals. The model’s call aligned with the winner, and the finishing difference explains how Philadelphia Union made that prediction count on the field.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC

Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET · Talen Energy Stadium

Full time

4–2

Half-time 2–0

  • 11'Milan Iloski (penalty)1–0
  • 19'Milan Iloski2–0
  • 47'Indiana Vassilev3–0
  • 51'Milan Iloski4–0
  • 78'Iván Angulo4–1
  • 90'Martin Ojeda4–2

The model before the game

Philadelphia Union
45%
Draw
26%
Orlando City SC
29.1%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Philadelphia UnionStatisticOrlando City SC
0saves2
12shots3
5corners3
37%possession63%
4shots on target0
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