Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Parma host Udinese in Serie A on Wednesday, October 28 at 1:30 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Parma win, while the table has Parma sit above Udinese on the same points. Udinese arrive after 5 defeats in a row; Parma come into the fixture after a 3-0 away defeat to Inter on October 10.
The numbers point to a closely contested match, with the model assigning a substantial chance to either side winning and a smaller share to a draw. Those probabilities are estimates. Parma have the model's top outcome, but Udinese's share is close enough to keep the result open.
What the model expects
The model gives Parma 44.9%, Udinese 38.9% and a draw 16.2%. Its expected-goals figures are Parma 2 and Udinese 1.7, projecting goals for both teams rather than a one-sided attack.
For the goals market, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 70.3% and under 2.5 goals at 29.6%. It gives both teams to score 69.8%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 30.2%. The model's likeliest scorelines are 2-1 (8.1%), 1-0 (8%) and 0-1 (7.1%). The score projections include outcomes with both teams scoring and outcomes in which one side is kept off the scoresheet.
Form and standings
Parma's last 5 games read LWLDL: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. The most recent was a 3-0 away defeat to Inter on October 10. Parma sit 16th in Serie A with 4 points from 6 games. The sequence has brought a mix of results, and the goals record gives a snapshot of the scoring and defending across that run.