Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Papua New Guinea 1–1 Solomon Islands. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Papua New Guinea host Solomon Islands in a friendly on Wednesday, September 30 at 12:00 a.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model gives the visitors a Solomon Islands win; the latest head-to-head meeting, by contrast, was Papua New Guinea 1-0 Solomon Islands (November 2025).
What the model expects
The model gives Solomon Islands 64.3%, against 20.7% for a draw and 15% for Papua New Guinea. These are estimates; the model’s likeliest result is a Solomon Islands win. Its outcome ordering is a Solomon Islands win (64.3%), then a draw (20.7%), then a Papua New Guinea win (15%), and its stated lean is Solomon Islands to win.
The expected-goals figures are 0.5 for Papua New Guinea and 2.1 for Solomon Islands. The most likely scorelines are 0-2 (15.3%), 0-1 (15.1%) and 0-0 (10.6%). Each forecast has Papua New Guinea failing to score, though these are possible outcomes rather than certainties.
For the total-goals line, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.6% and under 2.5 goals at 51.4%. It assigns 35.8% to both teams scoring and 64.2% to at least one side failing to score. That latter measure is not limited to a goalless draw: it also includes outcomes where one team scores and the other does not.