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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Papua New Guinea 1-1 Solomon Islands: Match Analysis & Model Review

Papua New Guinea 1-1 Solomon Islands in a friendly, Wednesday, September 30: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands finished 1-1 in a friendly on Wednesday, September 30, sharing a 1-1 draw. Solomon Islands went ahead from the penalty spot through R. Lea'i, and Papua New Guinea levelled in the second half. The interval score was 0-1, with Solomon Islands in front; the later equaliser settled the scoring at 1-1.

The match was played at HFC Bank Stadium. The opening goal gave Solomon Islands the lead, but it did not decide the result. Only Solomon Islands ever led; the score was levelled once. Each side scored one goal, for two goals overall, and the final score was 1-1. The result was a draw after Papua New Guinea found a response to the penalty.

How it unfolded

R. Lea'i converted a penalty for Solomon Islands in the 3rd minute, making the score 0-1. That remained the score at half-time, when Papua New Guinea trailed Solomon Islands by 0-1.

Papua New Guinea equalised in the 61st minute, making it 1-1. The score stayed level after that goal, leaving the sides with a 1-1 draw. The sequence was straightforward: Solomon Islands scored first, then Papua New Guinea brought the match level. Only Solomon Islands ever led; the score was levelled once.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

The shot count was 9 for Papua New Guinea and 9 for Solomon Islands. Shots on target stood at 4 for Papua New Guinea and 5 for Solomon Islands. Possession was 44% for Papua New Guinea and 56% for Solomon Islands.

Papua New Guinea had 8 corners, while Solomon Islands had 3. The match produced one goal for Papua New Guinea and one goal for Solomon Islands, with two goals in all. Those figures sit alongside the 1-1: each team found the net once, and neither added a further goal after the equaliser.

How the model called it

The probabilities are estimates. Before kick-off, the model gave Papua New Guinea a 31.7% chance of winning, the draw 27.6% chance, and Solomon Islands a 40.6% chance. Its most likely outcome was Solomon Islands to win; it gave the actual result a 27.6% probability.

The result went against the model's most likely outcome. The match began with Solomon Islands taking the lead, but Papua New Guinea equalised in the 61st minute. The final 1-1 was therefore a draw rather than the model's most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands

Wed, Sep 30 · 12:00 AM ET · HFC Bank Stadium

Full time

1–1

Half-time 0–1

  • 3'R. Lea'i (penalty)0–1
  • 61'Papua New Guinea1–1

The model before the game

Papua New Guinea
31.7%
Draw
27.6%
Solomon Islands
40.6%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Papua New GuineaStatisticSolomon Islands
9shots9
8corners3
44%possession56%
4shots on target5
Open the Match Center

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