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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Panama 1-1 New Zealand: Match Analysis & Model Review

Panama 1-1 New Zealand in a friendly, Thursday, October 1: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Panama and New Zealand shared a 1-1 draw in a friendly on Thursday, October 1, with the match already level at half-time. Marko Stamenić put New Zealand ahead before Dylan Herbert restored parity in first-half stoppage time, and neither side added to the score after the break. The match was played at Nissan Stadium.

New Zealand were the only side to lead, and the score was levelled once. The opening goal gave New Zealand the advantage, but Panama responded before the interval; the second half brought no further change to the score. Both teams finished with a goal, and the match ended with the points shared.

How it unfolded

New Zealand struck first when Marko Stamenić scored in the 13th minute, making it 0-1. Panama answered in the 45th minute (+1): Dylan Herbert found the net to bring the score to 1-1. The teams went into the interval at 1-1, and the match finished 1-1.

That was the full scoring sequence: New Zealand took the lead, then Panama brought the match level. No further goal changed the score after the interval.

The numbers

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Panama had 11 shots and New Zealand had 11. On target, the figures were 2 for Panama and 1 for New Zealand; the saves were 0 for Panama and 1 for New Zealand. The final tally was two goals, with Panama scoring one goal and New Zealand scoring one goal.

Possession was 64% for Panama and 36% for New Zealand. The corner count was 2 for Panama and 4 for New Zealand. Taken together, the figures show a match in which the sides recorded the same number of attempts, while the target and corner counts differed. The possession split also gives a clear measure of how the ball was distributed, without changing the basic outcome: the goals were shared and neither side found a winner.

Standout performers

A. Herbert was Panama's best-rated player, with a rating of 8.2 and 1 goal. For New Zealand, M. Stamenić was the best-rated player, receiving 8.2 and recording 1 goal. Those ratings identify the leading performers for each team, while the scoring record separately credits Dylan Herbert and Marko Stamenić with the goals.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave Panama a 55.3% chance of winning, a draw 23.4%, and a New Zealand win 21.3%. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Panama to win; it gave the actual result 23.4%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The final score was the model's 2nd-likeliest score.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Panama vs New Zealand

Thu, Oct 1 · 2:10 AM ET · Nissan Stadium

Full time

1–1

Half-time 1–1

  • 13'Marko Stamenić0–1
  • 45'+1Dylan Herbert1–1

The model before the game

Panama
55.3%
Draw
23.4%
New Zealand
21.3%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

PanamaStatisticNew Zealand
0saves1
11shots11
2corners4
64%possession36%
2shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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