Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Final: North Carolina Tar Heels 26–37 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Read the game analysis →
Preview
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish visit the North Carolina Tar Heels in college football on Saturday, October 3, with kickoff at 12:00 p.m. ET. The matchup brings the North Carolina Tar Heels’ recent road loss against the Clemson Tigers together with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish’s wins over the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s projections are estimates, not certainties. The model gives the North Carolina Tar Heels 12% to win and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 88%; its likelier result is a Notre Dame Fighting Irish win. The model never rates a side above 88%, and this read is at that ceiling.
The model projects 14.3 points for the North Carolina Tar Heels and 29.5 for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, with 43.8 in all. Its projected margin is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish by 15.2 points.
Records and recent results
The North Carolina Tar Heels are 2-1 overall this season, with 70 points scored and 41 allowed in 3 games. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 4-0, with 169 points scored and 33 allowed in 4 games; the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have the better record.