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Game analysis · college football

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37-26 North Carolina Tar Heels: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 37-26 win for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish over the North Carolina Tar Heels in college football, Saturday, October 3: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

In college football on Saturday, October 3, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish beat the North Carolina Tar Heels 37-26. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish gained 475 yards, including 241 on the ground, while the North Carolina Tar Heels finished with 285 total yards and 77 rushing yards.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish protected the ball, with no turnovers, while the North Carolina Tar Heels had 2. The Tar Heels also got a touchdown on a kick return from Jaden Jefferson, but the Fighting Irish came away with the win.

The numbers

The North Carolina Tar Heels had 285 total yards, 208 net passing yards and 77 rushing yards. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish had 475 total yards, 234 net passing yards and 241 rushing yards.

The Tar Heels recorded 18 first downs, held possession for 22:56 and converted 50% of their third downs. The Fighting Irish recorded 26 first downs, held possession for 37:04 and converted 36.4% of their third downs.

The North Carolina Tar Heels finished with 2 turnovers; the Notre Dame Fighting Irish had 0. The Fighting Irish won by 11 points.

Top performers

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New Mexico State Aggies vs Florida International Panthers Prediction & Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers in college football, Wednesday, October 7. Goalorithm's model makes a Florida International Panthers win the likelier result at 78%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

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Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Prediction & Preview

Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in college football, Thursday, October 8. Goalorithm's model makes a Missouri State Bears win the likelier result at 65.2%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

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North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. completed 17 of 28 passes for 208 yards, with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Tar Heels running back Benjamin Hall ran for 36 yards on 10 carries, and receiver Jordan Shipp caught 7 passes for 109 yards. Jaden Jefferson returned a kick for a touchdown for North Carolina.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr completed 21 of 29 passes for 234 yards, with 4 touchdowns. Fighting Irish running back Jonaz Walton ran for 120 yards on 23 carries, while receiver Jordan Faison caught 8 passes for 132 yards, with 2 touchdowns. Notre Dame defender Luke Talich had an interception, and kicker Spencer Porath made 1 of 1 field goals.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pregame probabilities were estimates, not certainties: the model gave the North Carolina Tar Heels 12% and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 88%. The model's favorite was the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win; the model's favorite won.

The model had the Notre Dame Fighting Irish by 15.2 points, and they won by 11 points, less than projected.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

college football

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET

Final

26–37

The model before the game

North Carolina Tar Heels
12%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
88%

The model's favourite won.

The numbers

North Carolina Tar HeelsStatisticNotre Dame Fighting Irish
2turnovers0
18first downs26
285total yards475
77rushing yards241
208net passing yards234
22:56time of possession37:04
50%third-down conversion rate36.4%
Open the Game Center

Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET

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Sam Houston Bearkats at Liberty Flames in college football, Thursday, October 8. Goalorithm's model makes a Liberty Flames win the likelier result at 78.7%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET

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Thu, Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET