Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Northern Ireland 0–0 Hungary. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Northern Ireland host Hungary in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Northern Ireland win, though its goals outlook points towards a restrained game rather than an open exchange.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Northern Ireland win (37.8%), then a Hungary win (31.6%), then a draw (30.6%). That puts a Northern Ireland win at the top of the model's outcome list, but the figures leave a substantial possibility of either a draw or a Hungary win. The forecast identifies an outcome it considers likeliest, not a certainty about how the match will finish.
The model's lean is under 2.5 goals. Its goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 32.9% and under 2.5 goals at 67.1%. It gives both teams scoring 40.2%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 59.8%. The goals outlook therefore centres on a match in which scoring may be limited, while allowing for either side to find the net. These are related but distinct measures: the chance of at least one team failing to score includes matches where one side scores and the other does not, as well as a goalless draw.
The expected-goals figures are 1.1 for Northern Ireland and 0.9 for Hungary. The most likely exact scorelines are 0-0 (17.9%), 1-0 (12.9%) and 1-1 (12.2%). Those possibilities include a goalless draw, a home win without a goal conceded and a draw with both teams scoring. The model's leading scorelines offer several different routes to the final result, so its broader lean towards fewer goals is more informative than treating any single score as a definite prediction.